Reds Blog

Narron! Get in here!

2007-04-27T13:38:35Z

How on God's green earth does Jerry Narron expect to win with a lineup of bench players (Norris Hopper and Juan Castro) while sitting his better hitters? If he has seven players (Freel, Hamilton, Griffey, Dunn, Encarnacion, Conine and Hatteberg) for 5 slots (1B, 3B, LF, CF, RF) aren't they getting enough rest as it is?

If it is to make sure that Hopper and Castro feel wanted/welcome/fresh, well, I guess I view it as that's just too d*mn bad, because the Reds are offensively challenged as it is and Castro hits worse than most pitchers (although he's fine as a defensive replacement) and Hopper is a nice pinch-running option.

Seeing Narron put an inferior team on the field on any given night just infuriates me.

Josh Hamilton conundrum

2007-04-19T08:50:30Z

Josh Hamilton is already forcing his way into the lineup. It is still way way too early to tell if he is going to hit .400 with 70 home runs and 180 rbis this year, but to hear folks in Cincinnati, that's where the current expectations sit. He'll play as long as he is hitting--and right now he is. What happens when he slumps--no one knows for sure.

What we *do* know is that Edwin Encarnacion is getting to sit because of it. Encarnacion is supposed to be the Reds 3B of the future. He has to be given more of a chance to get out of his current slump if that is the case. He has far more ability and potential than others who are currently playing every day. It is hard to fathom why Narron feels free to screw with Encarnacion--even benching him over a lack of hustle on one play--when he lets Brandon Phillips and Ken Griffey and plenty of others get away with those things. It is apparent to casual observers that Narron has it in for Encarnacion--but it is not apparent why.

The fact is that Narron should be putting the best team that he can on the field every night. In a perfect world, we would actually know how good Hamilton really is, as opposed to supposing that he is on a bit of a hot streak and that he will cool off. Not knowing makes it harder.

Is Encarnacion really the least of those threats among the Reds every day players? I sure don't think so.

Brantley

2007-04-05T13:54:02Z

Marty and Thom are pretty fun to listen to. There is only one Nuxie. I could listen to these guys all day long--and I do as often as I can.

I don't know what to think about Jeff Brantley. He says a lot of dopey stuff. For example, he insisted that Dustin Hermanson would be the closer just the day before Hermanson was cut. Good grief.

random thoughts as spring training winds down

2007-03-27T18:20:01Z

Eric Milton. I have to ask what everyone is asking--is he *really* going to be in the rotation over some of these other guys who clearly outperform him? I'm not so drastic as to recommend that the Reds cut him, but it seems that he could be better used in mop up until he works out whatever problems he has. Truth be told, it seems to me that the fastball and curveball are coming to hitters without much difference in velocity because he is like batting practice out there. It's ugly.

Josh Hamilton. Are you kidding me? I just hope that the raised expectations are not so unrealistic that his rough patches become a problem. Everyone should try to keep a level head and remember that he is a Rule 5 guy who simply does not have a lot of innings under his belt, understanding that his tools are off the charts and that he will make some spectacular plays or timely hits more than some. Anything useful should be considered a bonus, and it honestly is a crying shame that he doesn't get regular ABs in AA this year.

Dustin Hermanson. Ok, if he is really the closer, then why did other teams sniff around him and then refuse to even sign him to a minor league deal? I worry about this choice--not that the Reds have a lot to pick from, but I think Todd Coffey has looked pretty good and really he was very good (but unlucky with hit rate in the second half) last year. I don't see Hermanson lasting past May 31.

Adam Dunn. How can someone this good go under the radar all spring? He has been tremendous and could be back on track after going off the rails last season in the second half. Credit Brook Jacoby, at least in part.

Spring Training--so far

2007-03-14T11:42:49Z

First note: A lot going on, been to S.T. and back and have to say that even though Josh Hamilton is really turning heads, we should not get ahead of ourselves. It is still only March 14 and it is still less than 30 at-bats. He's made the team--that's good--but folks who expect him to step in and contribute like a regular expect far too much from him.

Second note--glad to see that Homer Bailey is going to get some more minor league time. No sense in rushing him. He's going to be tremendous, but starting the clock on his service time makes little sense and he has some work to do before he is ready for prime time.

Third note: Has anyone else noticed how much the catchers have stunk this spring? Ay carumba!

Fourth note: Matt Belisle has emerged as a favorite for the fifth slot in the rotation--maybe--but Paul Wilson is also in the running and as the season wears on, there may be a revolving door in that slot. Still, Belisle has done everything the Reds could ask and he is probably better than $9 mil albatross Eric Milton to boot. To my mind, if Krivsky has to eat some money to unload Milton, that would still be a smart move. Given the offseason signings (Marquis and Meche most notably), someone will be interested in Milton.

Fifth note: This time last year, Edwin Encarnacion was the toast of spring training. I think 2007 is going to be his breakout season--lots of offense coming--hopefully from the 4 slot in the lineup.

Sixth note: Speaking of lineups, Alex Gonzalez better not ever be higher in the lineup than 8th. Perhaps some pitchers can outhit Gonzalez . . .

Seventh note: Adam Dunn looks refreshed and renewed. NL teams better watch out.

Eighth note: All we hear is how David Weathers is the closer, Mike Stanton may get some shots, and Dustin Hermanson is a candidate as well. I don't see how there is room on the team for everyone involved, when you also count Rheal Cormier, Bill Bray, Todd Coffey, Gary Majewski and Kirk Saarloos. Here's betting that Hermanson stays in extended spring training, that Majewski starts the year on the DL, and that Coffey and Bray outpitch Weathers, yet Weathers remains the ersatz closer anyway.

Ninth note: speaking of Kirk Saarloos, what are the Reds going to do with all of their fifth starters? Saarloos, Belisle, Wilson, and Livingston all looking at one slot on the team? Something has to give---hopefully the Reds can keep some of this depth.

Final note: less than three weeks away from the Opening Day celebrations in Cincinnati--no matter how the team is projected to perform, that is one of the best days of every year.

Harang and Arroyo contracts

2007-02-08T15:30:46Z

Congratulations to the Reds--very very good contracts in 2007 dollars and they will look even smarter in 2008, 2009 and 2010.

Beats spending that same money to bring in some deadbeat pitcher for short-term who isn't much above replacement level, if at all above replacement level--which is what other teams appear to have done.

Never thought I'd say this during this offseason, but kudos to you and your staff, Mr. Krivsky.

Bellhorn and Saarloos

2007-01-23T18:32:42Z

First, let me just say that I consider Shafer highly expendable and probably traded at his highest value point--he is not going to help the Reds, despite what his AA numbers from last year might tell you. This is a salary dump for Oakland, plain and simple.

But Saarloos might be useful as a replacement for Ryan Franklin. I know, I know, Franklin was not brilliant for the Reds last year, but he was very flexible and useful in August and actually pulled the Reds out in some games with long relief stints. I like the pickup.

As for Bellhorn, he costs nothing and is just coming to camp to see if there is something left in the tank. Not exactly Rich Aurilia, but he just may beat out Jeff Keppinger for that 2B/3B bench slot (and he should, since Keppinger can't hit at all and Castro can do all of the extra glove work that the team needs). Of course, Bellhorn has to bring *some* value--he'll have to hit a lot better than he did last year for San Diego. I like that move too.

Baby steps, but positive ones.

Kyle Lohse, 4.2 million dollar man

2007-01-23T17:45:16Z

Not quite Steve Austin territory, but close--for a 5.83 ERA pitcher.

Lohse's peripheral numbers were a bit better, though--we probably have a 4.50-4.80 ERA pitcher for that money, which is better than Eric Milton, who is still running at $8 mil.

Every week the Reds hope to run out Arroyo, Harang, Milton and Lohse. #5 is mystery man--maybe Homer Bailey later in the year if he keeps on skyrocketing upward.

That is a sub .500 rotation, folks, as long as Milton and Lohse are taking regular turns and Bailey is not quite ready--not quite. Now there is a slight chance that Lohse could go on a roll at some point and provide some wins to go with all those innings, and Bailey could be a rare phenom, but I'm not holding my breath--especially not with the offense as decimated as it is with all the spare parts in the lineup from last year's version.

Are the Reds currently sitting on their hands and hoping that no one has another offseason injury? Seems so.

Vern Ruhle, RIP

2007-01-23T17:35:39Z

Wow, what a sad story. I hope the Reds family takes care of Vern Ruhle's family in as many ways as possible.

Crazy like a fox

2006-12-08T11:46:30Z

When I read what he'd done, I thought Krivsky was crazy. As in Jim Bowden-crazy. But it was not as crazy as it first sounded.

Krivsky was crazy like a fox on Thursday, paying the Cubs (of all teams) to select Josh Hamilton and slide him over to the Reds.

It costs the Reds very little in the way of money (at least baseball money) and Hamilton was a number one overall pick in 1999. Most observers know that Hamilton got hurt in 2001, got into crack and basically was wandering in the wilderness until he was reinstated last June. He put in some time in split season ball before hurting his knee, but reports are that he still has his considerable tools.

Odds are that he is going to be overmatched at the big league level. Rule 5 selections have to stay on the major league roster all season. But the Reds should be focused on the longer-term, and it is far better to get some upside in Rule 5 than to waste a selection on a fringe pitcher (as the Reds appeared to do with their own selection).

Given that the Reds carried Quinton McCracken and DeWayne Wise at various times, and Norris Hopper and then three catchers on top of that, this is really not going to hurt the Reds very much, since they are generally too thin to put 25 quality contributors on the roster anyway. There is no reason to think that Hamilton cannot play adequate defense, and it won't hurt for him to get a fresh start in a new organization.

As much as I have been a critic of a lot of what Krivsky does, this was a very inspired move. A crazy like a fox kind of move.

The beauty is, if it doesn't work out, it costs the Reds so little. This was definitely a gamble worth taking--now the talent evaluators have to do a good job figuring out whether Hamilton can contribute--not in 2007, but rather in 2009. If he can help the Reds in 2009, then he should get the roster slot in 2007 over the Norris Hoppers.

Cowboy

2006-11-28T09:51:07Z

It is incumbent upon me, though, to comment on Jason LaRue's departure. LaRue for a PTBNL. And we pay half his salary. That is an ignominious end to LaRue's tenure in Cincinnati, but his sub .700 OPS necessitated it--especially with the fat $4.3M salary given to LaRue by Krivsky's predecessors.

I always kinda liked LaRue--even when he led the league in passed balls, which was maddening. But this was an excellent business decision--even when paying half his salary--to save the other half and free up the roster spot.

(Now if only the Reds had saved that spot for something more than Chad Moeller) . . . .

Chad Moeller???

2006-11-28T09:43:55Z

Others sum it up: It really is a major league deal, which is just disgusting. Moeller had a 568 OPS in 317 at-bats in 2004, a 624 OPS in 199 at-bats in 1995 and a 506 OPS in 98 at-bats before the Brewers finally got fed up with him last season. There are better catchers littering Triple-A rosters.

Not to mention--the Reds ALREADY HAVE TWO CATCHERS on the major league roster. So--why sign Moeller, and worse, why sign him to a major league deal instead of a minor league deal?

Having said that, while the money isn't as important as the roster spot, neither will probably make much difference to the Reds in 2007 or beyond. It is just another indication of a foolish roster move, though, and both the money and roster spot could be put to better use, even if just to give all of the Reds secretarial staff a raise.

Mike Stanton

2006-11-20T16:16:06Z

I generally dislike deals for 39 going on 40 year old players. But in the short-term, an old one-out lefty-type guy like Stanton is not a terrible signing, it just seems a bit uninspired. Chris Hammond was tried and flamed out last year, but that has not stopped the Reds from trying. Add Stanton to Bill Bray and overpriced Rheal Cormier and you see a decent (although not superior) lefty stable. Now it is a matter of finding some right-handers to go with Todd Coffey--hopefully, something creative can be done here that doesn't involve any other geriatrics.

hot stove

2006-11-20T16:11:56Z

Checking in with new shortstop Alex Gonzalez. Here is the thing--which one of these is Alex G's hitting stats:

Player A:

2002 .296 OBP, .620 OPS

2003 .313 OBP, .756 OPS

2004 .270 OBP, .689 OPS

2005 .319 OBP, .686 OPS

2006 .299 OBP, .695 OPS

or Player B:

2002 .278 OBP, .607 OPS

2003 .290 OBP, .678 OPS

2004 .277 OBP, .655 OPS

2005 .279 OBP, .665 OPS

2006 .281 OBP, .632 OPS

Well--both sets of hitting stats are pretty putrid. Player A is Gonzalez at $14M/3 years. Player B is Juan Castro at $2M/2 years. One *has* to believe that Gonzalez is a far superior defensive player, because the extra $12M for a year cannot possibly be for his anemic bat.

But that is false too--according to the good scouting methodology at Baseball Info Solutions, the difference is negligible. Gonzalez has a stronger arm and is a little better going to his right; Castro is a little better going to his left and back on fly balls. DP balls--it is a wash. Castro is a little more dependable, but both have soft hands.

So while the deal is not terrible in a vacuum (in this year's market) when superimposed on the Reds team needs, what is that extra $12M actually buying for the Reds that Castro is not already providing?

It just begs the question of the opportunity cost---where else could that money have gone? It also brings up the sad truth about the Reds offense that will now have Gonzalez and not Felipe Lopez. Is Gonzalez - Lopez in the field worth more than Lopez - Gonzalez at the plate? I don't think so. Does Lopez cost more? We shall see, since Lopez is arbitration-eligible. If Lopez does not cost more this year, then Wayne Krivsky's trade with the Nationals is a compounding blunder.

Cory Lidle, RIP

2006-10-12T10:20:11Z

It is hard to believe that it has been two and a half years since Cory Lidle starter the Reds opener in 2004. I followed before that--when he was with the Mets, and then Tampa, and then Oakland--because he was that unsung kind of guy that I love the most. Ryan Freel is that kind of guy. Chris Stynes was that kind of guy when he played. Kevin Millar is another one of those guys--you know the type--more like an average joe than the glitz and glamor type.

It just reminds us how fragile life is and how quickly two and a half years can go by.