hot stove

Checking in with new shortstop Alex Gonzalez.  Here is the thing--which one of these is Alex G's hitting stats:

Player A:

2002 .296 OBP, .620 OPS

2003 .313 OBP, .756 OPS

2004 .270 OBP, .689 OPS

2005 .319 OBP, .686 OPS

2006 .299 OBP, .695 OPS

or Player B:

2002 .278 OBP, .607 OPS

2003 .290 OBP, .678 OPS

2004 .277 OBP, .655 OPS

2005 .279 OBP, .665 OPS

2006 .281 OBP, .632 OPS

Well--both sets of hitting stats are pretty putrid.  Player A is Gonzalez at $14M/3 years.  Player B is Juan Castro at $2M/2 years.  One *has* to believe that Gonzalez is a far superior defensive player, because the extra $12M for a year cannot possibly be for his anemic bat. 

But that is false too--according to the good scouting methodology at Baseball Info Solutions, the difference is negligible.  Gonzalez has a stronger arm and is a little better going to his right; Castro is a little better going to his left and back on fly balls.  DP balls--it is a wash.  Castro is a little more dependable, but both have soft hands. 

So while the deal is not terrible in a vacuum (in this year's market) when superimposed on the Reds team needs, what is that extra $12M actually buying for the Reds that Castro is not already providing? 

It just begs the question of the opportunity cost---where else could that money have gone?  It also brings up the sad truth about the Reds offense that will now have Gonzalez and not Felipe Lopez.  Is Gonzalez - Lopez in the field worth more than Lopez - Gonzalez at the plate?  I don't think so.  Does Lopez cost more?  We shall see, since Lopez is arbitration-eligible.  If Lopez does not cost more this year, then Wayne Krivsky's trade with the Nationals is a compounding blunder.