The 1-3 put up in San Francisco is now 1-4 after a tough loss to LA.  Two more with LA and three with San Diego–realistically, the Reds need 3 of those 5 to come home still kicking in the wild card.  While the Reds have been falling down, so have the Padres and Phillies, letting quite a number of teams back into the race–including the Astros and Marlins, and of course the Giants.  As I see it, there are 7 teams still with a legitimate shot at the wild card and the Reds are just one of those.  These next 5 games are crucial to survival–the Reds cannot get swept in LA and San Diego.

Here is a plea to stay the course.  I know he has an electric arm and that he is the best Reds pitching prospect, probably since Tom Browning.  But he has exceeded expectations this year, he has thrown a lot of innings and will throw even more by the end of Chattanooga’s season, and does not need the added stress of either starting games in the middle of a pennant race or trying to pitch out of the bullpen when he has been starting all year.  There may be some merit to calling him up just to hang around the clubhouse and get the feel for what it is like, but I think Jerry Narron will be too tempted to use him, and so I don’t even like that idea.  I think we congratulate him on a great season, make sure that he is in Baseball America’s 2007 top ten prospects, and then start again in spring training.  If the Reds miss the playoffs by one game, it might well be true that Bailey could have been the difference.  But if Bailey tries to do too much and fails at a critical juncture, it would probably be a developmental setback at a time where he is probably not quite ready for prime time anyway.

Not to beat a dead horse, but it has really shown up lately–the poor hitting bench that the Reds currently have.

Currently, the pinch-hitting options are Javier Valentin, Jason LaRue, Todd Hollandsworth, Juan Castro, Royce Clayton (if Rich Aurilia is at shortstop) and . . . no one else.  Ay caramba! That is so very not good!  September will see some call ups, but more relievers and perhaps Chris Denorfia after the AAA playoffs are over–and Jerry Narron is not very fond of using rookies when he has, well, Javier Valentin. 

How did this happen?  Ryan Wagner, Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns for Clayton, Brendan Harris, Gary Majewski and Bill Bray–that’s how.  If you want to know how the Reds won so many games in the last inning (and they lead the majors in that department, somehow, despite that bullpen), it was the fact that there were always some great hitters and solid position flexibility on the bench.  Now it is Hollandsworth from the left, Valentin from the right.  Right now, the pitching just has to be that much better to make up for it.

When the Reds return and the Padres come to visit, Mr. Castellini is once again going with the half-price tickets and $1 hotdogs to fill the stadium. 

If you want to see playoff baseball in Cincinnati for the first time in 11 years, get off your duffs and get to the park for that series and do what you can to help the team win.

Speaking of–sitting in section 533 yesterday, we had a guy yelling at the top of his lungs all game, and I am pretty sure that the players could hear him because the rest of the stadium was so quiet.  He didn’t yell anything profane or outrageous and he didn’t boo.  He just implored his Reds to perform as best he could, and the rest of us in the section got a kick out of him.  As fans, we can–and should–be more like this guy with the playoff races in full throttle.

Seasons are often defined by one road trip, one home stand or one series.  Given the tight nature of the race with the Cardinals and the wild card with the Padres, Dodgers and Phillies, it is hard to imagine that the Reds season can be won over the next two weeks in San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego.  But it can certainly be lost, as only 3 of those 5 teams are going to win playoff spots–and that is discounting the possibility that one of the teams that is slightly farther out can go on a winning string like the Dodgers did recently when they looked out of it.

I played hooky and went to the last game of the Astros series yesterday.  The weather was nice, the first inning was solid against Oswalt, but then it all went to pieces in the seventh inning.  Chris Michalak gave the Reds far more than they bargained for, but then after a leadoff man reaching base, Todd Coffey came in and was simply terrible.  David Ross had words with the ump over some close pitches, and the fact is, the balls/strikes umps were terrible all series–especially Buckner in the Reds dramatic come-from-behind win on Monday.  But that isn’t what cost Coffey.  Coffey simply tried to be too fine and that is not going to get it done–especially after all of those walks to load the bases and then getting ejected on a 3-1 count against Ensberg.  You could see it coming–Coffey (and Ross) know better. 

In my view, Jerry Narron made a couple huge mistakes at this point and let the game get out of hand.  He should have had someone else ready to go in the pen (he didn’t, and Ryan Franklin and Rheal Cormier had to get ready in a big hurry, as the umps were not going to give the Reds any slack at all) and he should have had a tirade of his own, throwing bases et al if necessary in order to give those relievers a chance to get ready.  You have to protect players and game situations, and even if that means going out and getting ejected.  Narron should have been ready (and willing) to do that to give Franklin a chance.

Franklin warmed up as fast as he could and promptly threw ball four, but the game was still in range at 3-2.  Narron brought on Cormier, and the floodgates opened.  Ugh.  Cormier is a nice groundball lefty, but it is asking too much with the bases loaded and one out, I guess.  The Reds really lost a chance to steal a game where Michalak had pitched so well and had an early lead off Oswalt.  Those are the ones that haunt you after the season.

Turn the page, though–the Reds have to win two of these next three series to be in command of the wild card upon their return.  It will define the season.  Good luck!

Mucho apologies to Rich Aurilia.  Apparently, he has plus range at shortstop.  In fact, he has more range than Royce Clayton, according to the cold, hard data in the Fielding Bible, put out by Baseball Info Solutions, and trust me, they know more about fielding than anyone, anywhere.  Aurilia doesn’t make errors, either, unlike Clayton (or Felipe Lopez).  So when we must have defense–Juan Castro is our guy, and when we need offense, Aurilia is perfectly acceptable at SS and there is really no time that we should want to see Royce Clayton on the field, which is kinda funny, since that’s pretty much all that Jerry Narron puts out there.  Maybe if he had a copy of the Fielding Bible, or of the Baseball Forecaster–or–maybe if he watched Clayton play. . . (I mean, seriously, who thinks Clayton is a major league ballplayer–raise your hands!  Ok, just as I thought–only two hands in the back row, just being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian).

So nice post, he who recommended Aurilia at SS, and it is nice to see those games where Narron actually does that.  It makes Ken Griffey the weak sister on the lineup card when the Reds use Ross at C, Hatteberg at 1B, Phillips at 2B, Encarnacion at 3B, Aurilia at SS, Dunn in LF and Freel in RF.  Given Griffey’s glovework, this is a bit of a problem, but it really isn’t much of a problem when you look at the lineup card and decide that Griffey is the weak hitter.  That’s a very solid lineup.

Another "wow" kinda game.  Ryan Franklin got the win, Scott Schoenweis got the save and Royce Clayton got the game-winning RBI.  Are you kidding me?

Todd Hollandsworth got a key pinch hit (but then committed an awful baserunning gaffe).

I am no fan of acquiring Scott Schoenweis, but it was fun to see him strike out Lance Berkman and Luke Scott in the ninth to nail down the win.  I have no idea why Schoenweis was called in that situation, but he was equal to the task–at least that time.  And here I am, thinking that cash OR a PTBNL is far too much to pay for Schoenweis.  Now I think Krivsky stole a converted save from the Jays–everything else is gravy.

Best of all–the hated Astros are buried in the standings and falling farther all the time.  Now it is the Phillies, D’backs and Padres that pose the biggest threat.  Anyone else is going to have to go on quite a tear to catch the Reds, up-coming west coast trip notwithstanding.  If the Reds are still standing after that trip, I think they have to become the favorites for the wild card (finally).  But that if has to happen first.  And before that, there is plenty of business here with Houston left to take care of.

I was talking to a scout who was drooling over Jay Bruce.  He’s in Dayton, if anyone wants to drive up and check out the future.  The scout’s comparison: Larry Walker.

He has been slapped around lately, but his peripherals really have not wavered much.  He is giving up too many homers, where before he was getting away with long fly outs.  He is not as bad as he’s been the past 4 starts, nor as good as he was April-May. 

I’m no pitching coach, but he needs to start throwing the fastball on the outside of the plate to RHers a little more and challenge hitters a little less up in the zone.  When he throws up in the zone with two strikes and having just shown an offspeed pitch, it is effective.  But up in the zone when the batter is sitting "dead-red = home run.

This leads me to a separate subject.  What is Tom Hume worth?  I mean honestly, he doesn’t seem to do very much to my mind.  I want to say that Eric Milton got straighted out on his watch, but I think that is just Milton getting back away from Don Gullett’s usual advice of throwing inside (it worked for Gullett, but it doesn’t work for extreme flyball pitchers like Milton).  And now Elizardo Ramirez is struggling–does Tom Hume even speak Spanish?  Perhaps someone can bring in Jose Rijo or someone like that to help out a bit, because the season is currently teetering on the edge and a little better work by the pitching coach would be nice.

Finally–someone tell Todd Coffey not to charge in from the pen like that.  It is kinda cool, but only if he then strikes everyone out.  It looks rather lame if he gets knocked around after charging in like that.  He isn’t really a strikeout pitcher, so it really isn’t all that cool.  Now if he were Rob Dibble or Randy Myers reincarnated . . . .

Can I just say this about Todd Hollandsworth?  If we feel the need to get a LH pinch hitter, then we need to get rid of either (1) Jason LaRue or (2) Javier Valentin.  Not Chris Denorfia.  Now, I fully expect the Reds to send down Denorfia, but he is as fine a 4th outfielder as we are going to find anywhere, and he has nothing to prove by getting at-bats in AAA.  He is able to play CF (Hollandsworth could at one time in his career, but no longer) and he has some speed and can hit better than either Valentin or LaRue. 

If the Reds are serious about staying in the wild card and NL Central races, then they should take a long look at what they are doing every time that David Ross is out of the lineup (I would have traded him, but that day has come and gone) and every day that all three catchers are used because two of them have pinch hit (Valentin should not be the #1 option as a pinch hitter–ever).  I’d cut LaRue and keep Denorfia.

Perhaps I would not have obtained Hollandsworth in the first place, though–he is merely a LH pinch hitter who is slightly better than the switch-hitting Valentin.  Super.  Fine. 

Wayne–Cut LaRue.